Fangraph’s Jake Mailhot published the first set of offseason power rankings this week. With free agency upon us, he used the depth charts as well as the current 2025 Steamer Projections to see how each team stacks up right now with their current roster. For the Cincinnati Reds…. it’s not looking great. They are currently ranked 27th in baseball as things sit currently, projected at 76-86 next year if they don’t make any improvements to their current roster.
That’s not terribly surprising given that they didn’t exactly play well in 2024 and they lost one of their best players – Nick Martinez – for the time being. It’s possible he returns. The Reds have made a qualifying offer to him and they’ve reportedly also discussed a multi-year deal with him, too. But until he accepts the offer or signs a new deal with them, he does not count for these purposes.
If we’re going to look at potential bright sides to this – the rest of the division isn’t exactly stellar right now. The Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and St. Louis Cardinals are all tied in these power rankings with a projected 82-80 record. While there’s always wiggle room in the projections, the baseline seems in line that the Reds are probably a handful of games behind those clubs right now.
Getting Nick Martinez back would certainly be a step forward. But if he’s not going to return, Cincinnati will need to add some pitching to replace him, and probably add some pitching beyond that, too.
Offensively they could use some additions, too, as Jason Linden wrote about last month. Maybe even more so than they need to add pitching. The problem lies with the fact that most of the spots where the team needed offense in 2024 have some sort of internal option that the Reds probably won’t be looking to replace. Getting Matt McLain back and him getting opportunities in the outfield, or even if his return just means that Jonathan India gets other chances around the field – that could help the offense.
At first base and designated hitter you are looking at a healthy Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Jeimer Candelario. The team isn’t likely going to just move on from seeing what Encarnacion-Strand can do after a rough five week stretch where he was likely injured for most of it. And they aren’t going to move on from Candelario for a multitude of reasons. At third base they’ve got Noelvi Marte. He struggled in a big way in 2024, but he’s also a now former top prospect who had a half-season of struggles. Like it or not, they aren’t just moving on from him just yet.
The outfield could certainly be a spot where Cincinnati could look to make some helpful additions on the market – whether that’s via trade or in free agency. Still, it seems that if the Reds are going to take that next step or two that they need to compete, it’s probably going to be because more of their young players that are already around stepped up and stepped forward.
With Cincinnati leaving what is now FanDuel Sports Network (formerly Bally Sports Ohio), they don’t know exactly what kind of television revenue they will be working with. While they likely have a ballpark idea, the uncertainty probably means that a team that is already conservative with spending money will be a little tighter with it due to the unknown here. Maybe they’ll surprise all of us and go out and spend on more than some utility players/middle relievers, and maybe it all depends on what Nick Martinez decides to do because it appears the club has at least $21,050,000 to spend on roster additions since they did make that offer to him.
The Reds, though, could utilize some of their farm system to try and make some trades. While there are some possible openings on the roster in the next two seasons, there aren’t likely to be many of them and the ones that do appear to be more open than others are in the outfield. And that’s a weak spot in the farm system. Where the Reds have depth on the farm is in the infield, which is also where there doesn’t appear to be all that much playing time to go around any time soon. Turning blocked prospects into trade possibilities could open up the potential to fill needs without shopping on the free agent market.
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