But only two made the ZiPS Top 100!
The Cincinnati Reds made Chase Burns the highest pitcher selected in the 2024 MLB Draft last summer, using the #2 overall pick to pluck the righty from Wake Forest University.
Burns has a heater that reaches triple digits and an absolutely devastating slider, a combination that fueled him to the top of the strikeout leaderboard among all Division 1 college arms last year. So, it’s not at all surprising to see him immediately vaulted to the top of the Cincinnati farm system rankings, something echoed by Eric Longenhagen in the latest update to FanGraphs’ Top 100 overall prospect list.
Burns checks in at #28 overall with a 55 FV grade (the same as the #11 ranked prospect on this list, for reference), though Reds catching prospect Alfredo Duno ranking right behind him at spot #29 comes as something of an eye-opener. The two are joined on Longenhagen’s Top 100 by fellow Reds prospects Chase Petty (#42) and Rhett Lowder (#51) in an overall strong showing from the farm.
Where things get interesting is when you compare Longenhagen’s list to the ZiPS Top 100 list dropped at FanGraphs by Dan Szymborski and his supercomputer earlier on Tuesday.
The Reds have only two prospects on the ZiPS list…and Burns is not one of them.
Dan made specific note of Burns after unveiling this year’s list, noting that the lack of any pitching in the professional ranks after being drafted last year dings Burns in the eyes of ZiPS projections as college-only stats simply do not translate well in the algorithm. That said, Rhett Lowder checked in at #74 on last year’s ZiPS Top 100 despite having not pitched at all as a pro just yet (and he’s ranked #55 on this year’s list after a solid-enough 2024 debut).
Lowder is joined by only Edwin Arroyo (#92) this time around after the Reds had six prospects make the ZiPS Top 100 last year. Each of Chase Petty (#95 last year), Carlos Jorge (#81), Sal Stewart (#79, and I’m guessing his injury dropped him), and Noelvi Marte (#51) dropped off, while Arroyo fell all the way to #92 from spot #33 in 2024.
If you’re an optimist, you can look at this pair of lists and say that each of Burns, Duno, Petty, Lowder, and Arroyo are considered Top 100 overall prospects by at least one corner of the FanGraphs crew. If you’re a skeptic – and who among we Reds fans isn’t at least a bit anymore – you can see that there’s certainly a divided opinion on several of the prospects in whom the Reds have invested heavily in the last few years.
For now, let us parade around knowing that someone well-qualified out there has Alfredo Duno as a Top 30 overall prospect in all of baseball and gloat accordingly.