Rumors swirled in the offseason about the Reds moving 27-year-old right-hander Graham Ashcraft to the bullpen. His career 4.91 ERA as a starter and the plethora of starting pitching talent on the Reds made Ashcraft the odd man out. He has seemingly received another opportunity this spring as he has made five appearances so far, all starts.
Unfortunately, Ashcraft has struggled mightily in 13 1/3 innings, as it’s more likely that he will begin the season in Louisville, where he’ll try to set things straight in Triple-A.
Ashcraft’s Spring Struggles
So far in spring, Ashcraft has allowed 10 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings while recording 13 strikeouts and eight walks in that span. His ERA and WHIP stand at an unimpressive 6.75 and 1.80 respectively, making it difficult to justify a major league roster spot as of now.
While it is important to acknowledge that spring training stats aren’t everything (Cy Young contender Hunter Greene currently has a 5.63 ERA in spring), it doesn’t exactly look good for Ashcraft as his career struggles have seemingly followed him into 2025.
Ashcraft’s Career Struggles
Coming out of the gate, Ashcraft was touching triple digits with his cutter while sporting a nasty slider. Despite the 4.89 ERA in 105 innings in his rookie campaign, there was optimism that adding a third reliable pitch into his arsenal would solidify him as a solid back-to-middle-of-the-rotation arm in Cincinnati. However, back-to-back years of putrid outings followed, with a 4.76 ERA in 145 2/3 innings in his sophomore season and an even worse 5.24 ERA in 77 1/3 innings in 2024.
Ashcraft’s Metrics
A concern with Ashcraft is the dip in cutter velocity. In 2022, his average velocity on his cutter stood at a blazing 97.3 MPH. In 2023, it took a significant dip, as it went down to 95.8 MPH, and in 2024, it dipped south once again, this time by a small margin at 95.6 MPH. If this dip in velocity was an attempt to bulk up his workload, it certainly didn’t come successfully, as he had a nearly identical innings-per-start average in all three years of his career. As of now, it seems as if the idea of Graham Ashcraft is far better than his actual production, a hole many young pitchers with nasty stuff fall into.
The positive outlook on this situation is that if the Reds do decide to move him into the bullpen, he would be able to go maximum effort out of the game rather than preserving his arm to go deep in games.
Despite the nasty stuff, Ashcraft had an awful 16.3 K% in 2024, which places him in the third percentile league-wide. He doesn’t miss bats at all, with a lowly 22.1 Whiff% (22nd percentile) and 26.2 Chase% (22nd percentile). He was also prone to loud contact, as his 42.7 Hard-Hit% (16th percentile) and 90.6 average exit velocity (7th percentile) are among MLB’s bottom.
The only thing Ashcraft did well in 2024 was generating ground balls, as he had a 49.2 GB%, good for the 82nd percentile. This isn’t a one-off occurrence either, as Ashcraft has always hovered around the bottom of the barrel in all these categories throughout his career.
2025 Expectations
Right now, it isn’t easy to imagine Graham Ashcraft starting the 2025 season as a member of the Reds rotation or bullpen piece. He has done nothing but struggle in his big-league career thus far. Now, entering year four is essentially his “prove it” year. He’s always had the stuff, but the metrics and numbers have consistently been underwhelming. A change of scenery for the bullpen could help, but any experiment will likely take place in Triple-A and not with the big league club.
Main Photo Credits: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
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