Earlier this month we saw Fangraphs release their projected standings for 2025 and at the time the Cincinnati Reds were projected to finish in a last place tie with the Pittsburgh Pirates, six games back of the projected winner of the division – the Chicago Cubs. In the time since then the St. Louis Cardinals also found themselves moving backwards and now they are also projected to finish at 78-84 and in a tie for last place with the Reds and the Pirates.
The division is kind of there for the taking if Fangraphs projects are close to being right. With a little bit of good luck from someone that isn’t the Cubs – whether it’s just from a health perspective or having a guy or two break out – anyone can catch them if they play to what’s projected here for them.
What will it take for the Reds to catch up to the Cubs? Well, we’re going to look at how the division stacks up by various position groups to see how everyone stacks up. Today we’re going to look at the infielders. And for Cincinnati, that’s a place where they stand out in the division.
There probably isn’t much argument that the best three Reds position players are Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Tyler Stephenson. Fangraphs has the infield for Cincinnati as the second best in the division, but the gap between the Cubs, Reds, and Cardinals among their infield is just 0.4 WAR. WAR, for those unaware, is not designed to be precise enough to the decimal point and when you are talking about that being spread out among 10-ish players. In reality, the three clubs infields are probably on par with each other, but ahead of both the Brewers and Pirates.
Cincinnati’s got the top spot in the division from the shortstop position. Don’t act shocked, you already knew. The Reds are second best at both second base and catcher, too. No one in the division really sticks out at first base, with the Cardinals group leading the way with a 2.4 WAR projection, with the Reds being 4th on that list at 1.4 WAR. Third base has Cincinnati at the bottom of the division at 1.8 WAR – just 0.1 behind the Brewers, but 1.6 back of the Cardinals who lead the way.
First base and third base were places where the Reds had all kinds of issues last season. It began with Noelvi Marte, who had a strong six week debut in late 2023, getting suspended for half of the season in spring training. Things didn’t get better when Christian Encarnacion-Strand was injured in late April (and likely earlier, but he was playing through it) and then saw his season come to an end in May. Then there was Jeimer Candelario’s struggles at the plate as he dealt with some health issues he played through for a while during the season, too.
The Fangraphs projections don’t really like any of those three players to contribute much in 2025. Both Candelario and Encarnacion-Strand are projected to hit a little bit. In fact, both are projected to be above-average hitters with Encarnacion-Strand coming in with a .257/.311/.463 line and Candelario at .242/.310/.436. The problem is that at first base or third base you are expected to be a better than league average bat. With Candelario, too, he’s projected to be a pretty poor defensive player, too.
If the Reds are going to make up some ground, it seems likely that they will have to get a little more production out of first base. There’s a bit of a wild card in here, though, and that’s Spencer Steer. Fangraphs actually projects him to get nearly half of the playing time at first base that is handed out by Terry Francona this season. Steer is also projected as an above-average hitter, but his defensive value is even lower than that of Candelario.
A season at the plate from Candelario where he produced more like he did in 2020, 2021, 0r 2023 would be a big step up. If Encarnacion-Strand could come close to what he has done throughout his minor league career would take the offense to another level. Steer returning to the kind of production he had in 2023 would be helpful, too.
And then there’s Noelvi Marte. Fangraphs doesn’t project much playing time for him, and that’s for good reason. Or at least good reason from their standpoint because they don’t project him as doing much of anything at the plate with a sub .300 on-base percentage and a sub .400 slugging percentage.
But there’s also a chance that he could be the kind of guy who could give them a big boost over the numbers, too. In the minor leagues throughout his career he’s been a guy who walked at a good rate and made contact at a good rate. And while he’s never had huge power numbers, he’s had good power numbers while being very young at every level he’s played at. If he were to take a step forward at the age of 23 and fulfill what the scouting reports have long said about him rather than perform like he did in 2024 after he returned from his suspension (and what Fangraphs seems to project for him in 2025), that’s a big difference.
With all of that said, it’s very unlikely all of those things happen. There are reasons to think that they won’t happen at all. Spencer Steer is already dealing with a shoulder issue and it’s one that he was also dealing with for part of last season that the winter didn’t exactly take care of. Jeimer Candelario is on the wrong side of the aging bell curve. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is coming back from a wrist injury and those kinds of things are known to cause some long recovery times for some players. And then there’s the unknown with Noelvi Marte and just how much – if any – of his production in the past was related to performance enhancing drugs or if that was a one-time issue as he attempted to recover from an injury in winter league baseball and with his return in the middle of the year he just never got back into the groove of things and everything built on itself and he just needs a fresh start in 2025.
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