I am so sick of the Cincinnati Reds small-time nonsense. I think nearly all of us are. But I’m still going to end up following them. The most recent trade got me looking at Gavin Lux’s stats and then I had an idea. And god help me, I think the Reds could construct a decent lineup now. At least offensively. So stick with me as a try to explain.
Part One: Established Starters
I’m going to be leaning on projections a fair bit in this column. They are imperfect, of course, but on a team-wide level they are at least helpful. In the recent ZiPS write up, there were four positions where the Reds projected to be above average. The primary players in those positions are not going to be moved around in a meaningful way. Nor should they be.
They are:
- Tyler Stephenson at Catcher
- Elly De La Cruz at Shortstop
- Matt McLain at Second
- TJ Friedl in Center
Friedl gets consistently underrated here. But lets not sleep on him. Anyway, those four guys are solid to excellent defensively and they all hit well. Especially for the positions they play. They are not moving.
Part Two: Starters Who Move Around
There are a handful of odd ducks on the roster. They are:
- Jeimer Candelario
- Spencer Steer
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand
They were all bad and/or hurt last year. They all project to be better this year. They are defensively questionable, but will generally be playing in spots that have lower defensive stakes.
Part Three: Platoon Guys
These players can either only hit RHP:
- Gavin Lux
- Jake Fraley
Or they can only hit LHP:
- Stuart Fairchild
- Santiago Espinal
In either case, their career numbers against their opposite-handed pitchers make them more intriguing than you might think.
Part Four: The Lineups
For the purposes of this exercise, I’m not going to worry about batting order. You guys can argue over that in the comments. For the seven primary starters, I’m giving you the ZiPS projection for wRC+ for next year, which gives you an idea of how much guys are expected to bounce back/regress. For the platoon guys, I’m giving you their career wRC+ against the appropriate pitcher type. Here what you get:
Vs LHP
- C – Stephenson (proj. 100)
- 1B – Encarnacion-Strand (proj. 108)
- 2B – McLain (proj. 116)
- 3B – Espinal (career 114 vs LHP)
- SS – De La Cruz (proj. 111)
- LF – Steer (proj. 107)
- CF – Friedl (proj. 102)
- RF – Fairchild (career 107 vs. LHP)
- DH – Candelario (proj. 97)
Vs RHP
- C – Stephenson (proj. 100)
- 1B – Steer (proj. 108)
- 2B – McLain (proj. 116)
- 3B – Candelario (proj. 97)
- SS – De La Cruz (proj. 111)
- LF – Lux (career 108 vs. RHP)
- CF – Friedl (proj. 102)
- RF – Fraley (career 113 vs. RHP)
- DH – Encarnacion-Strand (proj. 108)
Now, some discussion:
I don’t believe Lux is going to play anywhere other than left field, a little second base, and a little DH. McLain is a better defender and probably a better hitter. And reports are that Lux is not good on the left side.
You can fuss with positioning Steer, Candelario, and Encarnacion-Strand all you want. I kind of wonder how Steer would be with regular playing time at third, since he seems to have a pretty decent arm and has played third a lot as a pro. I just put them where I thought was most likely. The only thing I’m reasonably sure about is Steer sharing left with Lux.
Candelario is probably the weak link if this all holds. So it goes. If Marte gets it together, he could get pushed. But I think everyone agrees that Marte is almost a lock to start the year in Triple-A Louisville.
This team is probably not a disaster defensively. Or Offensively. It has upside and some youth. But the second someone stubs a toe, it could get real messy because the bench is going to be thin. Right now, other than the platoon guys when they sit, it’s Jose Trevino and probably either Will Benson, Blake Dunn, or Jacob Hurtubise
Signing one guy who can really hit, regardless of where he plays, would be a big deal.
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