Only two Cincinnati Reds prospects listed among FanGraphs Top 100

Hmm…

The Cincinnati Reds farm system has been generally adored by prospect wonks so far this winter.

Each of Noelvi Marte, Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips, and Chase Petty ranked among MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 overall prospects just weeks ago, for instance. And while MLB Pipeline seems to be highest on the team’s farm, which saw more than a half-dozen promotions from within just last year, each of Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America had at least three Reds on their respective Top 100 lists, too.

FanGraphs, though, appears to be less swayed. They released their own Top 100 list this morning, and only Marte (41) and Lowder (44) made the cut.

The Chicago Cubs, who have enough money to spend like drunken idiots while also operating within the same division where the Reds must align payroll to resources and avoid peaks and valleys, have seven prospects on this list. Huh.

Keep in mind that this is hardly an outlier when it comes to FanGraphs’ evaluation of what the Reds are up to at each and every level. Their 2024 Depth Charts Projected Standings have the Reds going just 80-82 in 2024 despite the guarantees doled out to Frankie Montas, Emilio Pagan, Nick Martinez, Jeimer Candelario, and Co., while their MLB Playoff Odds sit just above 30% despite there now being 27 (or so) Wild Card routes to technically making the ‘playoffs’ each year.

I’d be salty about this and simply say ‘ah, FanGraphs just doesn’t know what it’s talking about,’ but I do (and almost always have) admired what it is they do over there more than many of their peers. So, perhaps today is a good day to step back, observe with couth, and shift some of skeptical saltiness towards the Reds methods themselves. One of them has to be a little bit more wrong about things than the other, after all!