Can he pick right up where he left off in 2023?
Fast Facts
- Born August 6, 1999 in Orange, CA
- The above birthday also belongs to one Hunter Greene, who was similarly born on that very same 1999 day in nearby Los Angeles, CA
- Currently ranks 29th on the all-time MLB dingers list among players who played college ball at UCLA, behind such luminaries as Troy Glaus, Chase Utley, Todd Zeile, Bobby Grich, Mike Gallego, current Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, and Hall of Famer Jackie Robinson
- Attended the Arnold O. Beckman High School in Irvine, CA, which produced 2015 1st round pick James Kaprelian (who was eventually dealt from the New York Yankees in the 2017 deal that landed Sonny Gray in the Bronx)
- Was originally drafted in the 1st round of the 2018 MLB Draft (25th overall) by the Arizona Diamondbacks, but declined their offer to attend college at UCLA
- I did not intend for this section to be so focused on Southern California, but here we are
Organizational History
- Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the 1st round (17th overall) in the 2021 MLB Draft
Career Stats
| Season | Age | Team | Lg | WAR | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | rOBA | Rbat+ | TB | GIDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB | Pos | Awards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | CIN | NL | 3.7 | 89 | 403 | 365 | 65 | 106 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 50 | 14 | 5 | 31 | 115 | .290 | .357 | .507 | .864 | 127 | .381 | 135 | 185 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64/DH | ROY-5 |
| 1 Yr | 3.7 | 89 | 403 | 365 | 65 | 106 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 50 | 14 | 5 | 31 | 115 | .290 | .357 | .507 | .864 | 127 | .381 | 135 | 185 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64/DH | ||||
| 162 Game Avg | 6.6 | 162 | 734 | 664 | 118 | 193 | 42 | 7 | 29 | 91 | 25 | 9 | 56 | 209 | .290 | .357 | .507 | .864 | 127 | .381 | 135 | 337 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
Career stats courtesy of Baseball Reference
Scouting Report
Scouting report courtesy of Baseball Savant
Projections
- Steamer: 622 PA, .260/.342/.464, 25 HR, 18 SB, .348 wOBA, 118 wRC+, 3.9 WAR
- ZiPS: 536 PA, .254/.340/.449, 19 HR, 17 SB, .342 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 3.6 WAR
Outlook
When we last saw Matt McLain on a big league diamond was when we first saw Matt McLain on a big league diamond. It was back in 2023 – his rookie season – and he burst on to the scene with 16 HR, 14 SB, a .370 wOBA, 127 wRC+, and 3.1 fWAR all in just 89 games played. The former 1st round pick of the Reds looked every bit like a superstar, pairing with Elly De La Cruz at SS as the two began to emerge as the future of the middle infield of the Reds.
An oblique injury ruined that all and shelved him for the remainder of 2023. Further oblique issues and a shoulder injury serious enough to need surgery and shelve him for all of 2024 later followed. In the meantime, we’ve been left to wonder if that 2023 was merely a BABIP-fueled flash in the pan (that .385 mark seems extremely high), and if the swing change he introduced to tap into more power than scouts ever anticipated him having was partially (or more) to blame for the repeated core and shoulder injuries.
Since the end of the 2024 MLB season, things have turned positive for McLain once again. He got time in the Arizona Fall League to shake off some rust, the Reds dealt Jonathan India to the Kansas City Royals to hand over 2B to McLain full-time, new manager Terry Francona has dropped Dustin Pedroia references to his efforts in camp, and so far the bat looks right back like it once did in Cactus League play.
The projections seem clear: McLain should, if things go well, become one of the stars of this Reds Renaissance, and that’s certainly the hope around these parts, too. Health, as it is wont to do, may well send that entire plan packing, but so far there’s no indication that the issues McLain dealt with throughout 2023-2024 are going to be constant obstacles. With those behind him, he’s poised to re-breakout in 2025.