The season isn’t over yet – with today’s game being the final one of the year for more than half of the teams in the league – but the rumors are already swirling about various team’s offseason plans. Bob Nightengale of USA Today noted this morning that the St. Louis Cardinals were looking to cut payroll and one of the moves expected is that they will be shopping Sonny Gray. The very next note in the piece is that the Cincinnati Reds are expected to aggressively pursue him.
There’s a bit to unpack here, given the history here, but let’s just start with looking at Sonny Gray. Cincinnati was reportedly “in it until the end” when Gray was a free agent a year ago, but came up just short of the Cardinals offer. He would sign a 3-year, $75,000,000 deal with St. Louis. But the deal was not structured as a 25-25-25 payment. The Cardinals only paid the right-handed starter $10,000,000 this year.
That means that any team that trades for him – short of cash coming back in the deal – would owe him $60,000,000 for the two season’s remaining of salary, plus a $5,000,000 buyout if the team would refuse to pick up a $30,000,000 team option for the 2027 season. Gray does have the option to opt out of that 2027 season if the option is picked up, though that seems incredibly unlikely.
It’s been a good season for Sonny Gray this year. He’s posted a 3.84 ERA (109 ERA+) in his 166.1 innings while striking out 203 batters and walking just 39. It’s a big step backwards, though, from where he had been in his previous two seasons in Minnesota where he posted ERA’s of 3.08 and 2.79 while making 24 and 32 starts for the Twins in those two seasons.
While his velocity is down from the start of his career to today, it has remained steady since 2021 – when it did drop off by about a MPH from the previous few seasons. From the perspective of his stuff falling off, it doesn’t seem to be an immediate issue.
Cincinnati traded Gray away in the spring of 2022. In return they acquired Chase Petty, who is now the club’s #3 rated prospect and knocking on the door after spending most of his season in Double-A before the final two weeks with Triple-A Louisville.
Familiarity with Sonny Gray certainly has to be playing a factor here. The Reds had him for multiple seasons and know that he can succeed in their home ballpark. His long time relationship with pitching coach Derek Johnson doesn’t hurt things, either. Gray is still a quality big league pitcher and one could argue that he could be the veteran presence that the younger starting pitching staff could lean on at times.
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