Cincinnati Reds first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand had a lost season in 2024 after suffering a right hand injury in late April. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old played only 29 games and struggled during the short time he played, slashing .190/.220/.293 (33 wRC+). As a prospect, Encarnacion-Strand was known for his outstanding raw power. Let’s dig into his profile and examine his future outlook.
Gauging the Future for Christian Encarnacion-Strand
The Profile
Encarnacion-Strand’s profile is well put together, with an aggressive high strikeout and low walk rate type of approach. Since his big league debut in 2023, Encarnacion-Strand’s chase rate is over 40%, one of the highest figures among all hitters (minimum 350 plate appearances). The overly aggressive approach can be a fragile one that can have the bottom fall out when things go wrong.
Minor League Track Record
He has performed with this combination for much of his minor league career. And his minor league numbers are fantastic, posting over a .400 wOBA across all levels. Interestingly, Encarnacion-Strand posted his only double-digit walk rate in the minors at Triple-A. This is a much bigger indictment on the Automatic Balls and Strikes System used at Triple-A than on any significant adjustment that Encarnacion-Strand made.
While there are concerns with Encarnacion-Strand’s contact ability, it is also fascinating to see his batting averages from his different minor-league stops. He never hit lower than .296 during his minor league career while also putting up ridiculous home run totals. While he is not going to hit anywhere near .300 in the majors, this is an intriguing element of his profile.
Batting Average Potential?
From a skills perspective, Encarnacion-Strand is the stereotypical middle-of-the-order power bat. During his first stint in the majors in 2023, his quality of contact numbers were solid (48.4% HardHit%, 10.5% Barrel%) and possibly a precursor to the more robust numbers we may see in the future. His final line in 2023 was encouraging, slashing .270/.328/.477 (111 wRC+). Shockingly, the .270 batting average is precisely supported by his .270 xBA as well. While that is not something to expect moving forward, it shows that it could fall within his range of outcomes.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s first career hit is a pinch-hit homer and gives the @Reds the lead! pic.twitter.com/DrGNvnX0yc
— MLB (@MLB) July 19, 2023
With Encarnacion-Strand’s combination of skills, predicting him to hit for a relatively high batting average seems counterintuitive. He is a very aggressive slugger with a bit of a strikeout problem. But his contact rates are not horrible (73%) and he has done it to an extent in the past. In addition, he flashed his barrel control in 2023 with a 38.6% sweet spot percentage which was among the best. So, his ability to hit the ball hard and square it up provides reasons for excitement.
Areas for Improvement
The aggressive nature of Encarnacion-Strand’s game will persist, but you would like to see incremental improvements in some of these areas. However, he has struggled to consistently make contact with breaking and off-speed pitches. He has whiffed over 40% of the time against sliders in his career and has not compensated for it by hitting them for damage.
Furthermore, it is just worth pointing out that he had a career-high in ground ball rate (48.2%) in 2024, but he has not been above 40% since his age-21 season in Low-A ball. Historically, he has been fairly well distributed between line drives, ground balls, and fly balls. Maintaining balance in batted ball distributions is one way to ensure a higher batting average floor than expected. While you do not want his ground ball rate near that high for his power output, a normal amount of ground balls helps raise the batting average. Comparatively, many sluggers will have fly ball rates nearing 50% which is typically accompanied by a .220-.240 batting average.
Future Outlook
Christian Encarnacion-Strand has 40-home run potential in 2025. He has flashed this level of power production all throughout his minor league career. Additionally, his quality of contact in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball is exciting. Great American Ballpark ranks as the third most favorable ballpark for right-handed home run production over the last three years.
The warts are still present and allow for plenty of downside as well. His extreme chase rate will be something to monitor as he ages, but will not be a huge issue in the short term. Also, he will also be hitting in the middle of the order in one of the more fun young lineups across the league. The overall profile could be similar to Jake Burger, but Encarnacion-Strand’s youth and past production lead him to have more upside. A season where he hits at least 35 home runs with a .260 average along with healthy counting stats is on the table for Encarnacion-Strand in 2025.
Photo Credit: © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
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