After some miscommunication this past week around the status of Julian Aguiar and the health of his elbow – it was initially reported that he had undergone surgery, but later revealed he was getting a second opinion – the Cincinnati Reds right-handed pitcher has indeed undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss the entirety of the 2025 season. This was first reported on Saturday by Mark Sheldon of Reds.com.
The 2021 12th round draft pick had made his way up through the organization’s farm system quickly. Aguiar, Cincinnati’s #10 prospect, was named as the 2023 minor league pitcher of the year and he may have been on his way to repeating this season if he hadn’t been called up to the big leagues in August. He would make three starts for the Reds that month and then four more in September. In his last outing he gave up seven runs in just 4.0 innings against Atlanta. Cincinnati lost that game 15-3 and it was the first time the team had lost a game that he had started. It was also be the last time he took the mound as he was placed on the injured list a few days later with an elbow sprain.
That late in the season meant his season was over with the placement on the injured list as he would be ineligible to return before the season came to an end. But it wouldn’t have mattered as we now know that the injury was a significant one that’s going to cost him the entire 2025 campaign.
In his month in the big leagues, Julian Aguiar was inconsistent. He had three good starts, a solid start in his debut, and three not-so-good starts. In total he threw 31.2 innings with a 6.25 ERA where he allowed 30 hits, walked 12, gave up eight home runs, hit five batters, and had 19 strikeouts.
While it seemed like heading into spring training that Aguiar was on the outside and looking in with regards to a spot in the rotation, if nothing else his injury now leaves Cincinnati with less depth. Both Aguiar and Brandon Williamson are already out for all of 2025 at this point. That leaves the Reds as things stand with Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, and Rhett Lowder as guys who seem to be reasonable expectations as starters if healthy. That would leave one spot open for the taking for guys like Jakob Junis, Carson Spiers, Graham Ashcraft, or a prospect such as Chase Petty, Connor Phillips (if he can rebound from his 2024), or a free agent or trade acquisition.
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