Back in early July, when the Reds were 41-45 and just a few games out of the NL Wild Card race, club GM Brad Meador suggested that the club was not yet ready to commit to a strategy for this year’s trade deadline. Flash forward to today, and fallen to a record of 47-53 after getting swept by the Nationals coming out of the All-Star break. It appears that recent performance may have been enough for the club to officially set course, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the club has begun to inform rival clubs that they are willing to part with players on expiring contracts.
It’s hardly a surprise that Cincinnati would limit any sell-off to rental pieces. After all, the club has an exciting core of young talent led by star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and right-hander Hunter Greene that figures to keep the Reds in the playoff conversation in the coming years, and this season has been complicated by injuries to key pieces such as Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, TJ Friedl, Brandon Williamson, and Graham Ashcraft. By maintaining that core of players as well as veteran pieces under longer-term control such as Jonathan India and Jeimer Candelario, the Reds can remain fairly well positioned to load back up for the 2025 campaign this winter and make another attempt at returning to contention.
The Reds’ list of pending free agents is a relatively short one, but it nonetheless has some interesting names. Right-hander Frankie Montas, whose $20MM mutual option for 2025 is all but certain to be declined, is perhaps the player with the most name recognition that the club could look to move. Righty Nick Martinez has a $12MM player option for 2025 and could also be made available, while outfielder Austin Slater (who the Reds acquired from San Francisco just two weeks ago), lefty Justin Wilson, and right-handers Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims will each see their contracts run out at season’s end.
According to Morosi, the Orioles are among the clubs to have interest in Cincinnati’s rental pitchers, including Montas and Martinez. The fit between Baltimore and either of those two pieces is somewhat obvious, as the Orioles have lost starters Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells to season-ending surgery this year. That’s left them to put together a patchwork rotation filled out by Dean Kremer and Albert Suarez behind front-end duo Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. At least one more playoff-caliber starter would make plenty of sense for the Orioles, and they would likely benefit from adding additional depth beyond that as well.
Whether Montas, 31, constitutes a playoff-caliber starter at this point in his career is up for debate. The righty has struggled badly with the Reds in 89 innings (18 starts) this year, posting a 4.85 ERA and 5.04 FIP which are both roughly 15% worse than league average. While Montas has allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of his 18 starts this year, blow-up starts have been a fairly frequent occurrence for the righty, including a combined 12 runs allowed in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Nationals and Rockies.
Bleak as his recent performance has been, Montas isn’t far removed from a stretch of mid-rotation success with the A’s from 2018 to 2022 where he posted 3.70 ERA and 3.61 FIP in 99 appearances. With that being said, it can’t be ignored that Montas underwent shoulder surgery back in February of last year. Since his return from going under the knife, his peripherals are those of a completely different pitcher. He’s struck out just 18.7% of batters faced after entering 2023 with a career 24.3% strikeout rate, and after allowing free passes to just 7.8% of opponents through the end of the 2022 season he’s watched his walk rate balloon to 10% since undergoing surgery. Even with those flaws, however, Montas’s track record as a quality mid-rotation arm could still certainly attract interest from pitching-hungry suitors.
Martinez, however, could prove to be the better fit for the Orioles’ needs. The right-hander has found a niche as one of the best swingmen in the game over the past three seasons with San Diego and Cincinnati, and this season the 33-year-old boasts a solid 3.88 ERA with an even stronger 3.15 FIP. While his 18.9% walk rate isn’t anything to write home about, he’s limited walks to a clip of just 3% this year while surrendering just six home runs in 72 innings of work. Martinez has been used primarily in relief this year, although he made five starts for the Reds early in the season and demonstrated the ability to move between the rotation and bullpen with relative ease during his time in San Diego. The veteran righty would offer the Orioles pitching depth for both the bullpen and rotation down the stretch, possibly working out of the rotation for the remainder of the regular season before moving into the bullpen during the playoffs.
Of course, Baltimore is far from the only club that could be interesting in the Reds’ available rentals. The Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, and Padres are among the other teams known to be in the market for starting pitching, while virtually every contender is typically on the prowl for rental bullpen help this time of year and could have interest in either Martinez in a relief role or a rental bullpen arm like Wilson, Farmer, or Sims.