The Reds announced today that they have selected the contract of right-hander Julian Aguiar. Righty Casey Legumina was optioned to open an active roster spot. To get Aguiar onto the 40-man, the Reds recalled righty Christian Roa and placed him on the 60-day injured list with a right shoulder sprain.
Aguiar, 23, was a 12th-round selection of the Reds in the 2021 draft. In 2022, he tossed 96 1/3 innings, mostly at the Single-A level but also with a brief look at High-A. He allowed 3.46 earned runs per nine innings, struck out 27.6% of batters faced, limited walks to a 6.6% clip and got grounders on more than half of the balls that were put in play against him. Last year, he made 25 starts between High-A and Double-A. In his 125 innings, he posted a 2.95 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and again got hitters to hit the ball into the ground about half the time.
Coming into 2024, Baseball America ranked him the #14 prospect in the Reds’ system. FanGraphs had him a bit higher, putting him at #7 in early April. BA highlights his pitch mix, describing it as consisting of a four-seamer, two-seamer, curveball, slider and changeup. FG doesn’t mention the two-seamer and also characterizes the slider and curveball as the same breaking ball, just shaped slightly differently, though they admit that this essentially leads to Aguiar having two different breaking balls even if they are the same speed.
Here in 2024, Aguiar has continued posting some decent numbers, though not quite as strong as previous years. He has thrown 116 1/3 innings over 22 starts between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.79 ERA. His 6% walk rate still demonstrates good control but his 19.7% strikeout rate is well below his previous two seasons. His ground ball rate has also been just below 40% at both levels this year, a drop from what he was able to achieve at the lower levels.
The Reds have Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson on the 60-day injured list. The former has a right elbow strain and an uncertain timeline. The latter has a shoulder strain and could be nearing a rehab assignment, per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer on X, but hasn’t pitched in the big leagues yet this year. Even if he is able to start a rehab assignment soon, he’ll likely need a few weeks of ramp-up to get into game shape. Righty Hunter Greene landed on the 15-day IL this weekend with some elbow soreness and the club seems optimistic he can return after roughly a minimum stint, but it’s still a big blow to the rotation mix given that he’s pitched well enough to be in the Cy Young conversation this year.
Amid those injuries, the rotation is down to a core duo of Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott, along with swingmen Carson Spiers and Nick Martinez. Now they will be adding the rookie Aguiar into the mix. The Reds are six games back of a playoff spot at this point and clearly have at least some hope of making the playoffs as they recently claimed infielder Amed Rosario off waivers. Rosario is a veteran on a one-year deal and has no future impact, so they wouldn’t have made that move if they had given up on the season.
Perhaps Aguiar will get a few turns through the rotation to see how his stuff plays against big league hitters, at least until Greene or Williamson are able to come off the IL. The club also has Lyon Richardson and Connor Phillips on the 40-man roster but Richardson has a 4.58 ERA and 13.4% walk rate in Triple-A this year. Phillips, meanwhile, has a ghastly ERA of 10.11 in his 14 minor league starts and hasn’t pitched in official game action since June. Non-roster options like Justus Sheffield, Connor Overton and Brett Kennedy are either injured, putting up poor numbers or both. The club has an off-day on August 26 but then has a double-header on August 30, meaning they don’t have a ton of leeway with their rotation at the moment.
As for Roa, 25, he was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He has been on optional assignment all year and still hasn’t made his major league debut. He last pitched August 10 and it appears this shoulder strain will end his season. Based on this transaction, he won’t be eligible to return until the middle of October. That’s not a pleasant outcome for him but the silver lining is that he’ll now get a bit of major league service time and pay while spending the rest of the season on the injured list.