The Cincinnati Reds always need to add pitching. Every team can probably have that said about them, but as we watched the 2024 season unfold, the Reds had their depth tested in the biggest of ways. And in the last few weeks of the season they saw two of their potential starting pitchers in 2025 suffer injuries that led to Tommy John surgery that will keep them out for all of 2025. Left-handed pitcher Shinnosuke Ogasawara is reportedly going to be posted by Chunichi this offseason according to Yahoo! Japan. The just turned 27-year-old has thrown nearly 1100 innings in his career in Japan since 2016 when he was just 18.
The Reds will look to spring training with options for their rotation in Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft, Carson Spiers, and minor league prospects such as Chase Petty and Connor Phillips. The cupboard isn’t exactly bare, even with the injuries and likely free agency losses of Nick Martinez and Jakob Junis. But there’s plenty of uncertainty with the rotation, too.
Free agency and trades could help alleviate that some if the front office utilizes the offseason well. Ogasawara threw 144.1 innings in the 2024 season in his 24 outings. That came along with a 3.12 ERA, nine home runs allowed, just 22 walks (and two of those were intentional), and 82 strikeouts.
On the good side of those numbers was a low ERA and a Nick Martinez-like walk rate of next to no one. But on the flip side of that was the fact that he struck out just 82 batters in 144.1 innings. Guys were making a ton of contact against him. In the past he’s had solid strikeout rates, but last season it was about as low as it gets.
That leaves open a bunch of questions that are probably better left to the scouts who have been following him over the last few years and have been able to pick up on what may have led to the decline in strikeouts and if it’s something that can be attempted to be “fixed” – be it a different approach/pitch mix or something else.
Without an increase in the strikeout rate, it seems very unlikely he could find success in the big leagues. You just don’t see guys with that kind of strikeout rate able to find prolonged success in Major League Baseball in today’s game.
As a starter he’s been working in the low 90’s with his fastball, while mixing in both a change up and a low 70’s curveball. That makes one wonder if maybe the stuff could play up with a move to the bullpen where he had a focus on pitching in a shorter, multi-inning role. In that kind of role maybe things get better with regards to the strikeouts, and he could also be depth for the rotation if needed down the line as someone who has both the experience starting and as a multi-inning guy wouldn’t need a big ramp up to give you 5-inning starts.
Of course that also brings up the question of would he be willing to do take that kind of role if another organization were more willing to give him a stronger shot at the rotation? Would any team be willing to do that, though, rather than saying he would have a chance to win a spot in the rotation given his low strikeout rate? I’m not so sure that they would.
If he’s dead set on being a starting pitcher than he may need to stay in Japan. But if he’s willing to take an opportunity in the big leagues where he is at least going to be given a shot to win a rotation spot, some teams are going to be better to pick from than others. Is Cincinnati one of those teams, given all of the question marks they have as things stand today? Or is the combination of the ballpark and at least some depth going to push someone in this situation to really explore other options?
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