A closer look at the linchpin of the Cincinnati Reds offseason payroll decisions.
Nick Martinez accepting the $21+ million Qualifying Offer (QO) issued him by the Cincinnati Reds would be a good problem for the Reds to sort through. After all, there’s a reason why they thought him valuable enough to roll that dice – it’s an indication he’s that rare combination of elite quality and proven production, something the current starting rotation could desperately use heading in to the 2025 season.
It’s not too far gone from the decision last year to a) bring Martinez in to begin with as a swingman who’d provide rotation depth and b) guaranteeing at least $16 million to Frankie Montas to anchor the rotation despite him having missed almost all of 2023 with major shoulder issues. The Reds knew they needed rotation help then, and they know they need rotation help now, too – especially with the major injuries to Brandon Williamson and Julian Aguiar.
Yeah, Martinez declining Cincinnati’s QO and signing elsewhere in free agency would be a boon to payroll. It would leave them somewhere in the range of ~$70 million for 2025, if you include the option buyouts to Luke Maile and Jakob Junis. If they truly were to pursue a payroll of some $105 million, that’s a whole pile of money to put to work in either free agency or acquiring players already on lucrative contracts via trades.
That, though, is a roster without Nick Martinez, and it’s pretty clear the team’s starting rotation needs a pitcher the caliber of, say, Nick Martinez. For all the youth and talent and upside owned in a rotation of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder, Andrew Abbott, and…
…
…that’s where things get perilous.
Lodolo and Abbott had their seasons end early due to major injuries, with Lodolo now dealing with injuries in each of his big league seasons. Graham Ashcraft, meanwhile, saw his limited pitch mix again not end up a good fit as a starter before he, too, landed on the injured list for good mid-year. Williamson and Aguiar are done for all of 2025 after late-season Tommy John surgeries, while banking big on Connor Phillips – for all his talent – after his yippish 2024 seems foolhardy at best.
So, if it’s not going to be Nick Martinez helping augment this starting rotation, it’s going to need to be someone else – and most every other ‘someone else’ out there is either going to be a) not as good as Martinez was in 2024 or b) going to require a much, much larger financial outlay than the one-year, $21+ million commitment he has been offered already.
The Reds with a $70 million payroll and no Martinez would then have to get really, really creative, especially since they still need to fix an offense whose overall 87 wRC+ last year was 5th worst in all of baseball (including an overall wRC+ of just 85 from their collective outfield).
Perhaps they could talk Walker Buehler into coming to pitch for the Reds, the team he was a fan of growing up down in Lexington before heading to Vanderbilt to pitch in the good ol’ Derek Johnson pipeline. His injury issues and declining velocity have left him in a bit of a tight spot heading into free agency for the first time, with MLB Trade Rumors suggesting he’ll land just a one-year, $15 million pillow contract as he tries to reestablish himself in 2025 for a longer-term deal afterwards. That’d be a gamble along the lines of the Montas deal, however, and would require him wanting to move to a fringe contender and pitch in GABP in a ‘prove it’ year.
That would save the Reds some $6 million they could put towards a big outfield bat, for instance. It would also require them to roll the dice on a guy who’s thrown just 140.1 IP over the since the start of 2022 thanks to elbow surgery (and owns just a 4.75 ERA and 4.74 FIP in that time). Teams always want to pay for what they’re going to get as opposed to what players have already produced, but it’s hard ignore just how much better (and healthier) Martinez has been in that timespan.
As to the larger point, it’s hard to envision any scenario where the Reds get Martinez to sign and then also turn around and spend what it takes to get one of the top-tier, proven free agent bats. That would blow their payroll well past what it was last year, and given the current flux of their TV contract (and past history of frugality) that seems way, way too ambitious for even this writer’s dreams. Even if they found ways to dump Jeimer Candelario’s contract (and maybe even Jonathan India’s), it’s a stretch to assume they’d manage to pull that off, especially with the bullpen still needing help, too.
Martinez not accepting the QO would leave them with payroll space, but it would also leave them with a clear need for a rock-solid front of the rotation arm and a legitimate big-bat for the middle of order. Considering just how hard it is to land pitching of that caliber via trade, it sure seems like Martinez accepting the QO is the single most straightforward way for the Reds to at least tick the box of one of their major needs this winter, with him declining it leaving them with more money to spend but a more questionable route to landing the elite, top-tier talent – a scenario that would instead render them in something akin to last winter’s level where they overspent on mid-tier talent in hopes it would simply overperform projections.
Could they improve beyond Martinez by getting super creative in trades? Perhaps, though the state of the farm system now is much more unproven and banged-up than it was in each of the last two winters. Point is, the most direct way to add a 3-4 WAR capable arm this winter would be via Martinez accepting the QO, and that’d be the most direct way for the Reds front office to show the baseball world (and new, future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona) that they can go out and land a big fish when they want to.
After all, having more payroll flexibility just means you haven’t signed any big-name, proven players yet.